The fundamentals of the hottest market are poor, a

2022-09-22
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The market fundamentals are poor, and the pressure of glass price rebound is great.

since the middle of February, the glass price has begun to gradually callback. At present, it has fallen back from a high point by 100, which can complete the experimental points of pipe ring stiffness, ring flexibility before merging, flattening, weld stretching and so on. After the Spring Festival, the high price of soda ash fell back, driving down the cost of glass. At the same time, under the influence of accumulated storage during the holiday, glass manufacturers entered the destocking cycle, and the high water rise mode of futures prices was unsustainable. With the cooling of capital speculation, glass futures prices are expected to continue to repair the premium

the range of futures premium narrowed

since the beginning of January, the glass futures price has rebounded strongly, and the fg1705 contract has risen from 1200 yuan/ton to 1400 yuan/ton in mid February. On the one hand, the sharp rise of black goods has created a long atmosphere for the glass market; On the other hand, the sharp rise in the price of soda ash before the Spring Festival has increased the production cost of glass

however, the performance of the spot market should pay special attention to the unsatisfactory anti-interference of the signal. The downstream of the glass market during the Spring Festival holiday is basically in the shutdown mode, while the production enterprises are in non-stop production, and under the mismatch of supply and demand, inventory accumulation is inevitable. Most of the spot areas remained stable, resulting in the continuous expansion of the price premium. In mid February, the price premium relative to the Shahe market expanded all the way to around 200 yuan/ton, which is a relatively rare situation in recent years

recently, under the effect of environmental protection inspection, most Shahe deep processing enterprises have stopped production. Under normal production conditions, local processing enterprises in Shahe can basically absorb 40% of the original production capacity. At present, the local demand in Shahe is shrinking, and the export of products has increased the supply pressure of surrounding markets. In addition, South China glass has recently reduced its price by 120 yuan/ton. Under this background, there is great pressure on spot price rise. At present, the range of futures premium has narrowed to less than 100 yuan/ton, and the later period price may continue to fall to narrow the price difference with the spot price

the high price of soda ash fell

as the main raw material of glass production, the price of soda ash fluctuated greatly. From 2013 to 2015, the price of soda ash continued to be depressed, the pace of capacity removal in the industry accelerated, and the concentration of soda ash increased. Since the second half of last year, the price of soda ash has rebounded sharply, especially in the fourth quarter. In January 2017, the average monthly price of heavy soda ash increased by 54% compared with July 2016. 8%. The rigid demand for glass during the Spring Festival also provided impetus for the rise in the price of soda ash

however, after the Spring Festival, there were many inventories of soda ash, and prices in various regions fell by different ranges. It is understood that the price of soda ash in North China has been reduced by 400 yuan/ton since the Spring Festival, and the production cost of Shahe, the main glass production area, has decreased by about 80 yuan/ton compared with that before the Spring Festival

inventory needs to be digested

in terms of inventory, the cumulative inventory value of production enterprises was 31.73 million weight boxes before the year, and increased by 1.26 million weight boxes to 32.99 million weight boxes after the year. Although the absolute value decreased compared with the same period of the previous two years, the inventory increment was at a high level. By the end of February, the inventory had been close to 34million weight boxes. At present, the large-scale shutdown of deep-processing enterprises in Shahe restricts the sales of glass, which is not conducive to the effective digestion of inventory. After completing the first round of replenishment, traders' willingness to purchase has also weakened

at the same time, after the cold wind of the real estate regulation policy blew in October 2016, the market effect has gradually appeared. At present, the first and second tier cities have basically stopped rising, and cities such as Wuxi and Hefei, which rose sharply last year, have even begun to avoid declining the performance of instruments. The cumulative sales area of houses across the country showed a downward trend of varying degrees year-on-year, indicating that the real estate market is cooling, thereby affecting the demand for building materials such as glass

to sum up, the current glass market is not only facing the pressure of cost reduction, but also plagued by poor delivery. Under the background of poor fundamentals, glass prices are under great pressure to rebound, and it is expected that the future market will continue to be weak and downward

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